Is Betting on the Art Market a Terrible Idea?
Prediction-market platform Kalshi has launched an art-focused category allowing users to wager on auction outcomes, including whether Andy Warhol will break his auction record this year and whether Gustav Klimt’s Portrait of Gertrud Loew (1902) will sell for more than $40 million at a Sotheby’s auction later this month. In a May 26 announcement, Kalshi framed the product as a way for people to use expertise to profit from an otherwise “inaccessible and illiquid” asset class, echoing rhetoric used by fractional-art platforms like Masterworks. Hyperallergic reports that early trading volumes have been relatively small, including about $43,000 wagered on the price of the most expensive work sold at auction this year and $3,124 on a Lucian Freud-related market, compared with $1.35 million on a Taylor Swift–Travis Kelce wedding market. Independent curator Carlye Packer expressed skepticism that art-focused participation would grow significantly, arguing that many traditional art audiences are not active on such betting platforms.
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This story was covered in Restitution Wars and the Auction Market’s Misfires